From evidence to conclusion

How to ask whether evidence supports a prediction, where error and bias may lie, and how to justify a conclusion (A1.8, A1.10).

Lesson 3 of 4 3 of 5 in the course

Course map

Draft: this lesson was written with AI help and has not yet been read by a human editor.

What your class asks

This lesson asks you to ask whether the evidence supports your hypothesis, where error or bias may lie, and to justify your conclusion with scientific knowledge. The museum offers two examples of how far a single piece of evidence can take you. 1

Curriculum expectations, with their official codes

  • A1.8 synthesize, analyse, interpret, and evaluate qualitative and quantitative data; solve problems involving quantitative data; determine whether the evidence supports or refutes the initial prediction or hypothesis and whether it is consistent with scientific theory; identify sources of bias and error …
  • A1.10 draw conclusions based on inquiry results and research findings, and justify their conclusions with reference to scientific knowledge

Before you start

A thought to carry into the lesson.

The lesson

Is there more than one explanation?

Think of the result of a single reading: what other explanations are possible? What would have changed it if something else had changed?

How many pieces of evidence before deciding?

Compare judging by one criterion with judging by several together. Write what each reading adds to your conclusion.

Go deeper

Seeing improvement after a substance is used does not, by itself, reveal what that substance actually did: Ibn Sina confronts this problem in a chapter of The Canon of Medicine setting out seven conditions for learning drug powers through experience 2. Read the first two. First, Ibn Sina separates a drug's power from qualities acquired through temporary heating or cooling, changes in its substance or contact with another material; the observation may reflect a temporary condition rather than the property being investigated 3. Second, with several conditions present, a symptom may disappear because one component changes, and the result may wrongly be attributed to direct action on another component; the text therefore distinguishes direct from incidental benefit 3. This is not a description of random allocation between two groups, but an attempt to reduce ambiguity within its account of disease causation 4.

Why they did it

The records read here do not quote Ibn Sina saying why he wrote this chapter, and they supply no answer for him. What they show is the frame. The Canon did not emerge into an empty medical world: Nasser, Tibi and Savage-Smith discuss al-Majusi's earlier compendium and explain classification of substances by heat, cold, moisture and dryness 5. The study places the beginning of the Canon in Jorjan, its continuation in Rayy and its completion in Hamadan 6. The record says the conditions address a practical difficulty: how to avoid assigning a substance a power on inadequate grounds 3.

Often misunderstood

A numbered list of conditions tempts readers to see a direct ancestor of a modern drug test. Similar questions do not prove direct descent of every later drug test or establish randomization, masking and placebo comparison in the passage 2. Britannica itself warns against assuming that his contribution meant medieval physicians possessed modern research protocols 7. The contribution presented is that organization of interpretive conditions within humoral medicine, not the invention of all experimentation or the birth of a modern clinical trial 8.

How do we know?

The directly examined witness consists of printed pages 318–319, which establishes their location in the inspected edition, not survival of the author's personal experimental records 2. The study identifies a different witness, the Rome 1593 printing in the Sibbald Library, with Tibi translating the text it presents 5. The Arabic pages were compared with that translation 2 8. Nor is this Ibn Zuhr's animal report or another author's comparison of patient groups: the document offers interpretive conditions, not a dated experimental report with detailed outcomes 2.

Think about it

The modern study uses the conditions to discuss confounding and animal-to-human inference 8, yet the record says similar questions do not prove direct descent of every later drug test 2. Take a position: is it fair to call these conditions an early training in careful reasoning about evidence, or does that read a modern idea into a text that works inside humoral medicine? Answer the strongest objection to your position: why does your position still stand?

Into the museum

Try this

Read the records on Ibn Sina's seven conditions and plant-ash glass. Choose a result from an experiment you ran and write what supports it and what could weaken it.

Carry it further

Where this lesson leads in the museum.

Check yourself

Nothing here is marked or sent anywhere. It is for you.

Which of these did you meet in this lesson?

Not in this lesson. Look again at the cards above.

Yes. That is the one from this lesson.

Not in this lesson. Look again at the cards above.

In your own words: what does Ibn Sina's seven conditions for assessing drug effects have to do with this lesson?

Compare with the card

What must be known before accepting an inference. Seeing improvement after a substance is used does not, by itself, reveal what that substance did. In The Canon of Medicine, Ibn Sina sets out seven conditions for learning drug powers through experience. The record presents this as an organization of interpretive conditions within humoral medicine, not as a modern clinical-trial protocol. Which of your own results could be explained in more than one way?

In your own words: what does Plant-ash (soda ash) glass have to do with this lesson?

Compare with the card

Many ratios, no single test. Plant-ash glass uses the ash of soda-rich plants as its flux instead of mineral natron, and by the tenth century it had become the dominant recipe of glassmaking in the Islamic world. Nadine Schibille proposes six chemical ratios that separate Egyptian, Levantine, Mesopotamian, Central Asian, Iberian and Sicilian glass. She stresses that no single criterion suffices: all must be used, both to exclude and to support an attribution. What would your data need before you drew a conclusion?

I can now

Notes

  1. 1. Ontario Ministry of Education, The Ontario Curriculum: Science
  2. 2. The Canon of Medicine, vol. 1 (Dar al-Kutub al-Ilmiyya, Beirut, 1999), pp.318–319
  3. 3. The Canon of Medicine, vol. 1 (Dar al-Kutub al-Ilmiyya, Beirut, 1999), p.318
  4. 4. Nasser, Tibi and Savage-Smith — assessing drugs, p.79
  5. 5. Nasser, Tibi and Savage-Smith — assessing drugs, pp.78–79
  6. 6. Nasser, Tibi and Savage-Smith — assessing drugs, p.78
  7. 7. Britannica — Avicenna, final-evidence-discussion
  8. 8. Nasser, Tibi and Savage-Smith — assessing drugs, pp.79–80
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